US-Iran ceasefire ends, oil traders skeptical of $160 WTI surge in April

The ceasefire between the US and Iran has expired and talks in Islamabad have collapsed, but Polymarket traders are pricing WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at just 1.2% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Market reaction

Volume in the WTI Crude Oil price market is modest: $316 in USDC traded against a face value of $20,174. The order book shows it would take $2,188 to move the price 5 points, a relatively balanced book. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 0.8% drop. With nine days left in April, the probability has fallen from 3% last week to 1.2% now.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil shipments. The ceasefire expiration and the Islamabad talks collapsing remove two of the main diplomatic guardrails. Yet traders are betting more heavily against a quick resolution rather than pricing in a supply shock. The Trump announcement on Iran market remains speculative, with odds for an announcement by March 1 holding steady given the unpredictable state of negotiations and military decisions.

What to watch

At 1.2¢, a YES share pays $1 if WTI hits $160 in April, a 83x return. Current odds reflect low confidence in that kind of surge without a major supply disruption. US naval operations in the Strait, diplomatic moves from intermediaries like Türkiye or Pakistan, and any statements from Trump or Iranian officials are the most likely catalysts that could shift these markets in the remaining days.

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