US humanoid robotics revenue to fall 58% below baseline by 2030, IDC warns

The US wants to lead the humanoid robot race. Its own trade rules may keep it from showing up to the starting line. Market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) projects that US humanoid robot revenue will land 58% below where it otherwise would have been by 2030. The firm attributes the shortfall to Washington’s trade restrictions, which wall off the American market from the country that builds most of these machines. That country is China. According to IDC, Chinese vendors accounted for roughly 95% of global humanoid shipments in the first half of 2026. What the FCC rules actually do The trigger is a set of Federal Communications Commission regulations that take effect starting July 28, 2026. Under the new framework, foreign advanced robotic devices, including humanoids and four-legged quadruped robots, are classified as covered technology on national security grounds. IDC’s forecast shows the damage arriving quickly. US humanoid revenue is projected to sit 41% below baseline in 2027, then widen to 58% below baseline by 2030. Worth stressing: these figures measure lost growth, not a market collapse. IDC is comparing a restricted future against the one the industry wo...