US Federal Reserve to hold rates through 2026 as inflation persists

The Federal Reserve’s war on inflation was supposed to be winding down by now. Instead, it’s settling in for a longer stay.

A Reuters poll conducted from June 4-9 found that 72 out of 102 surveyed economists, roughly 70%, expect the Fed to keep its benchmark federal funds rate parked at 3.50% to 3.75% through the end of 2026.

The numbers behind the hold

April’s Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8% year-over-year. Geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes, and those costs ripple through everything from shipping to groceries.

The May jobs report showed a gain of 172,000 payrolls. That’s nearly double what economists initially expected.

The Fed has now held rates steady for three consecutive FOMC sessions, with the most recent decision coming on April 29. The vote split 8-4, with the dissenters signaling openness to future rate hikes if inflation doesn’t cool down.

Interest rate futures markets are now pricing in the possibility of at least one rate increase before 2026 ends.

What this means for crypto

Bitcoin has been trading between $76,000 and $84,000 amid the current policy uncertainty.

The prolonged higher-for-longer environment creates a specific kind of headwind for digital assets. Reduced liquidity across markets means less capital flowing into riskier corners of the investment universe. When borrowing costs stay elevated, leverage gets more expensive, and the speculative fuel that drives crypto rallies becomes scarcer.

The leadership question and what comes next

Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is expected to bring his own perspective to monetary policy as Jerome Powell’s term approaches its conclusion.

The 8-4 dissent within the FOMC reveals a central bank that isn’t just holding steady but is actively debating whether to tighten further.

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