US expects oil supply disruptions of 600,000 barrels daily from Iran conflict through 2027

The US government now forecasts that oil supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran will average roughly 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2027. That number sounds almost manageable until you remember what came before it: the largest oil supply crisis in recorded history. The projection, reported in August 2026, reflects a slow and uneven recovery from the chaos that erupted earlier this year when US and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian facilities in late February and early March. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally handles around 20 million barrels of oil per day, saw flows collapse to near zero at the conflict’s worst moments. The scale of the damage At its peak, the disruption shrank global oil flows to roughly 14 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency called it unprecedented, surpassing previous crises including the Gulf War and the Iranian Revolution. The carnage showed up immediately in global inventories. During the second quarter of 2026, stocks fell by 4.2 million barrels per day, a drawdown rate that left strategic reserves worldwide looking uncomfortably thin. Brent crude has recently averaged between $78 an...