US copper imports surge as traders brace for Trump tariff decision

US copper imports in July spiked to roughly 200,000 metric tons, the largest monthly inflow recorded in shipping data going back to at least 2014. Traders are front-running what could be a major tariff escalation on refined copper, and the scale of the positioning is hard to ignore. The surge follows a period where US refined copper imports have already been running hot, averaging around 140,000 tonnes per month from January 2025 through May 2026. That’s nearly double the 2024 monthly average. What’s driving the rush On August 1, 2025, 50% Section 232 tariffs went into effect on semi-finished copper products. But refined copper cathodes, the most commonly traded form of the metal, were exempted from that initial round. That exemption created a window, and traders have been climbing through it ever since. The Commerce Department was tasked with studying domestic copper refining capacity and making updated recommendations on whether to extend tariffs to refined copper. That updated recommendation was due from the Commerce Secretary by June 30, 2026. The phased approach initially contemplated would start tariffs on refined copper at 15% in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. The result is vi...