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US and Iran are set to attend a fresh round of ceasefire talks in Islamabad. The market for a ceasefire by April 30 now sits at 37.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire extension market dropped to 19% YES from 69% seven days ago, with just one day left until the current ceasefire expires. The presence of both sides at the table has traders betting on an extension, though the steep decline over the past week shows real doubt.
Why it matters
The April 30 market is where most attention sits, with traders speculating on a deal within the next 10 days. Daily volume is at $54,670. It takes only $841 to swing the odds by 5 points, which makes this market thin enough that a single large trade can move the price significantly.
The prior round of discussions ended without resolution, and Iranian state media has been silent on delegation travel, raising questions about whether attendance is confirmed. At 37.5¢, a YES share offers a potential 3.3x payout for those betting on a deal.
What to watch
Confirmation of Iranian attendance is the first thing to track. Any statement from Trump on Truth Social or an official release from CENTCOM could move these markets fast given the low liquidity.
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