US 30-year Treasury yield hits 2007 high as stocks attempt cautious recovery

The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.239% on July 29, marking the highest level since 2007. The move matters for every corner of financial markets, from equities to crypto. When the safest investment in the world starts paying north of 5%, the calculus for holding anything riskier changes fast. What’s driving the yield spike Three forces are converging to push long-term rates higher. First, inflation remains stubbornly persistent. Oil prices have breached $92 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, adding fuel to price pressures that the Federal Reserve has been trying to extinguish. Second, the Fed itself is sending mixed signals. The central bank held interest rates steady at its July meeting, but the decision wasn’t unanimous. Three policymakers dissented, pushing for additional hikes. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting jumped to 65.2%. Third, there’s the simple math of supply and demand. The US government continues to issue enormous quantities of debt, and buyers are demanding higher compensation to hold it. Earnings paint a split screen The results were a tale of two tech giants. Microsoft share...