US 10-year Treasury yield expected to exceed 5% this year

The US bond market is having a rough year, and it is not done yet. A majority of respondents to Bloomberg’s Markets Pulse survey predict the 10-year Treasury yield will cross above 5% before 2026 ends, a threshold that would mark the most sustained run at that level in nearly two decades. The 10-year yield sat at approximately 4.70% on August 19, a 19-month high, and the direction of travel has been consistently upward. What the numbers actually say The Bloomberg survey polled 101 market participants, and 57% of them expect 30-year Treasury yields to close 2026 at or above 5%. The 30-year yield already briefly crossed 5% earlier this year during an oil-price spike that rattled long-end bonds. The question now is whether it stays there, and whether the 10-year benchmark follows. For context, the 10-year yield last touched 5% briefly in October 2023. Before that, you have to go back to 2007 to find a period where it held above that level with any consistency. A separate Reuters poll from August 2026 showed a median 10-year yield forecast of 4.50% over a three-month horizon. 82% of the strategists surveyed flagged upside risks to that estimate. Why yields keep climbing First, inflatio...