UK faces recession risk if Strait of Hormuz remains closed

Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026. That single decision by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is now threatening to tip the UK economy into recession. The strait is the world’s most important oil chokepoint, handling roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade. When it closed, that flow largely stopped. Shipping data through mid-2026 shows transit rates remain severely depressed, with over 90% of normal shipments disrupted. What the numbers actually say Brent crude prices have risen 10 to 13% since the closure began. Refined product prices in affected regions are now approaching $195 to $200 per barrel as of July 2026. EY’s forecast puts UK GDP growth at just 0.3% for 2026 if the strait stays closed through year-end. Wood Mackenzie and SolAbility have modeled the broader global picture, estimating potential GDP hits of 0.4% or more across regions exposed to the disruption. The UK sits near the top of the vulnerability rankings because of its structural dependence on imported energy. UK Maritime Trade Operations issued warnings about ongoing risks to shipping in the region as recently as July 2026, signaling that no near-term resolution is in sight. Why the UK is pa...