Tungsten supplies running on empty amid AI boom

The world’s AI ambitions have a bottleneck, and it’s not chips, capital, or even electricity. It’s a dense, gray metal that most people associate with light bulbs their grandparents used. Tungsten, a critical input for manufacturing high-performance semiconductors, is running dangerously low on the global market. Prices have surged as much as 622% in 2026, driven by a collision of Chinese export restrictions, rising military demand, and the insatiable appetite of AI chip fabrication. Two major Japanese producers have already shut down entirely, and the structural deficit isn’t going away anytime soon. How we got here China controls roughly 80% of the world’s tungsten supply. Starting in 2025, China imposed export restrictions that limited the number of firms permitted to ship tungsten abroad. By 2026-2027, only 15 companies were authorized to export the metal. Ongoing conflicts involving Ukraine and Iran have pushed defense-related tungsten demand higher. The metal is used in armor-piercing ammunition, missile components, and various military applications. Meanwhile, the AI industry’s demand for advanced semiconductors has been climbing at a pace that makes “exponential” feel like ...