2 hours ago
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Tucker Carlson’s public apology for supporting Donald Trump has pushed the odds of Trump publicly insulting Carlson by April 30, 2026, to 100%, with the market showing complete certainty.
Carlson’s criticism of Trump’s policies, particularly on Iran, has driven the market to full conviction. The contract for Trump publicly insulting Carlson by April 30 sits at 100% with no price movement over recent days. Traders appear unanimous that a public insult will happen.
Combined 24-hour volume is zero USDC, meaning traders are sitting on existing positions rather than opening new ones. The term structure across different date contracts is flat, with no shifts between expiries. This points to broad agreement not just on the outcome but on the timing.
Carlson’s move toward an isolationist stance opens a split in the MAGA base. His apology is the kind of public break that has historically triggered retaliatory comments from Trump. At 100¢, a YES share pays nothing, since the market already treats the outcome as certain. A contrarian NO bet would require Trump to show restraint toward a former ally who publicly criticized him, something he has rarely done.
Watch for Trump’s posts on Truth Social or public statements that mention Carlson by name. Any direct response would confirm what the market already expects.
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