Trump vows swift end to Iran’s nuclear threat amid blockade tensions

President Donald Trump declared that the United States plans to swiftly end Iran’s nuclear threat, asserting that Iran has pleaded against any blockade. The statement suggests potential developments in US-Iran relations, particularly regarding the ongoing Iranian blockade. Trump’s comments could be interpreted as indicating a possible easing of tensions, which may influence related prediction markets. In the “US End of Iranian Blockade” market, recent pricing reflects shifts in expectations. The probability of the US announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026, has declined to 12% from 24% within the past 24 hours. For the August 31 deadline, the probability stands at 52.5% YES, suggesting market participants see a greater likelihood of an announcement by that date. The August 15 sub-market also saw a drop, now at 34.5% YES. Overall, market activity suggests a cautious outlook on rapid resolution scenarios, with a focus on developments in the coming weeks. The shifts in market odds indicate that participants are closely monitoring official statements and geopolitical indicators that could confirm or refute current expectations. Key Takeaways Market behavior suggests...