Trump threatens to bomb Oman, rejects Iran MoU extension amid rising tensions

President Donald Trump has escalated tensions in the Middle East by threatening to bomb Oman, a move that comes as he also rejects extending the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran. This development was reported amid ongoing conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, with Oman previously playing a diplomatic role. South Korea is now considering joining U.S. military efforts against Iran, following pressure from Washington. These actions suggest an expanding conflict and a potential shift in regional alliances. The market for a final US-Iran nuclear deal appears to reflect heightened skepticism in light of these developments. Odds for the deal by the end of August 2026 currently stand at 0.9% YES, a decrease from earlier in the month. By the end of September, the likelihood is priced at 3% YES, further indicating diminished expectations for a diplomatic resolution. The possibility of a deal by December 31, 2026, is still considered higher, at 16% YES, yet this too reflects a significant drop from previous levels. Key Takeaways The threat to bomb Oman and rejection of the MoU with Iran appears consistent with a decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal. Sout...