2 hours ago
1
Trump’s push for US control of Iran’s nuclear material has collapsed market odds. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 sits at 2.7% YES, down from 7% just 24 hours ago and from 68% a week ago.
Market reaction
The demand for control over Iran’s nuclear assets signals a hardline US stance that makes a deal by April 30 far less likely. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 dropped to 2.1% YES. Markets for later dates hold up better: the May 31 and June 30 contracts trade at 31.5% and 50.5% YES respectively.
The largest single move in the nuclear deal market was a 4-point spike at 3:50 PM, showing how reactive traders are to new developments. Volume over the last 24 hours was $7,699 in USDC, and only $1,550 is needed to move the price 5 points. This thin liquidity means even small trades can cause sharp swings.
Why it matters
Trump’s insistence on US control could be a deal-breaker for Iran, reducing the chance of an agreement before the April deadline. At 2.7%, buying YES costs 3¢, with a potential 33.3x return if resolved. For that bet to make sense, you’d need a major shift in US-Iran negotiations within six days.
What to watch
Iran’s response to Trump’s demands is the next catalyst. If Iran holds its position against US control, or if Trump escalates further, odds likely fall more. Statements from Oman and China also matter, since both countries have roles that could shape the direction of negotiations.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) · 