2 hours ago
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Trump is pushing for an indefinite ceasefire with Iran, but Tehran’s resistance has kept the US-Iran ceasefire end market at ? YES, with effectively no significant trading activity.
Market reaction
Iran remains firm on its 10-point plan for permanent peace, and traders appear unconvinced that either side will move soon. The US-Iran ceasefire end market is stagnant, with odds for a ceasefire end announcement stuck in place.
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market sits at 3% YES for April 30 and 14% YES for June 30. The June 30 contract dropped 5.5 points over the past week, a sign that traders are growing more skeptical of a near-term resolution.
The diplomatic meetings with Iran market ticked up slightly to 3.2% YES. Odds are still low, but Trump’s push for discussions could keep this market moving if any direct meetings are announced.
Why it matters
Trading volume is thin across all related markets. The Israel-Iran market reports $3,004 in USDC traded over 24 hours, with just $322 needed to move the price 5 points, making it highly susceptible to swings. The diplomatic meetings market shows $5,862 in USDC traded, with $2,542 needed to move 5 points, more stable but still vulnerable to a single large order.
What to watch
Trump’s indefinite ceasefire goal and Tehran’s firm stance are pulling in opposite directions. A YES share in the ceasefire end market could pay well if Trump announces an end, but current diplomatic dynamics make it a risky bet. Any announcements from Islamabad or Tehran could shift odds fast. The next meaningful catalyst could be a Pakistani mediation effort or a surprise move from the US or Iranian side.
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