Trump pledges no compromise on Iranian uranium in talks with Netanyahu

## Market Snapshot

Iran’s Enriched Uranium Surrender market indicates a 42% chance of Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, unchanged from 24 hours ago. The likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, 2026, has decreased to 17.5% YES from 20% a day earlier.

## Key Takeaways

– Trump’s commitment to Netanyahu appears to indicate a hardline stance against Iranian uranium enrichment. – The likelihood of Iran agreeing to surrender its uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, remains stable at 42%. – The probability of reaching a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, 2026, has decreased, suggesting less confidence in a near-term agreement.

## Article Body

Former U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that there will be no compromise on Iranian uranium, as ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations aim to establish a post-war memorandum of understanding. The discussions follow recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran intended to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. The U.S.-negotiated proposal allows Iran to resume enrichment after a 12-year moratorium, contrasting with Trump’s firm position against any residual Iranian enrichment capacity. The talks involve key figures such as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, seeking Iran’s agreement to export its enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for sanctions relief and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s pledge underscores the high escalation risk if negotiations fail, with the Israeli Defense Forces preparing for potential renewed conflict.

## Market Interpretation

Trump’s pledge may indicate a decreased likelihood of Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium by the end of 2026, with the market maintaining a 42% YES probability. The impact on the US-Iran nuclear deal market is more pronounced, suggesting a reduced chance of an agreement by May 31, 2026, now priced at 17.5% YES. The overall impact is considered moderate, given the persistent geopolitical tensions and the ongoing nature of negotiations.

## What to Watch

Developments in U.S.-Iran talks will be crucial, particularly any official statements or reports from Trump, Netanyahu, or Iranian leaders. Monitoring actions by the IAEA and their inspection reports could provide further insights into Iran’s compliance and the potential for an agreement. Additionally, any new sanctions or military actions could significantly alter market perceptions and pricing.

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US-Iran nuclear deal bearish

18% FLAT