Trump discusses resuming combat operations against Iran with security team

## Market Snapshot

The “Iran closes its airspace by May 31” market shows a 39.5% YES price, up from 36% 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the “U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027” market is priced at 31.5% YES, an increase from 30% the previous day. The “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” market has moved to 7.5% YES, down from 8% a day earlier.

## Key Takeaways

– Recent developments suggest an increased likelihood of Iran closing its airspace, as indicated by the 39.5% pricing for a YES outcome. – Trump’s meeting to discuss combat operations appears consistent with a scenario where a U.S. invasion of Iran becomes more probable, now priced at 31.5% YES. – Market pricing suggests a decreased probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal, as indicated by the decline to 7.5% YES.

## Article Body

President Donald Trump recently convened with his national security team at his Virginia golf club to deliberate on the potential resumption of major combat operations against Iran. This development comes amid concerns over U.S. commitments to allies such as Taiwan and NATO. The United States and Iran have been in an active conflict since February 2026, with Israel participating in the initial attacks. Although a ceasefire was declared on April 7, reports indicate ongoing strains in the truce, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. Resumption of major combat operations would indicate a significant escalation, highlighting the fragile nature of the current ceasefire.

## Market Interpretation

The news of Trump’s discussions on resuming combat operations is supportive of YES outcomes in the “Iran closes its airspace” and “U.S. invasion of Iran” markets. This suggests a high impact, as markets are pricing in increased military engagement that could lead to defensive measures by Iran, including airspace closure. Conversely, the focus on military action over diplomacy is consistent with a decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal, reinforcing a potential NO outcome.

## What to Watch

Watch for official announcements from Iran regarding airspace closure, which could follow increased military tensions. Key statements from Trump’s administration or significant troop movements could further influence the likelihood of a U.S. invasion. Additionally, any diplomatic engagements or changes in rhetoric from either the U.S. or Iran regarding a nuclear deal will be critical in shaping market expectations in the coming weeks.

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US invasion of Iran bullish

32% FLAT

US-Iran nuclear deal bearish

8% FLAT