2 hours ago
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Trump canceled Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s planned trip to Pakistan for Iran peace talks. The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, is now at 3% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 61% a week ago.
The cancellation hit the April 30 market hardest. The May 31 market dropped to 29.5% YES from 38% in the last 24 hours. The June 30 market fell to 45.5% YES. The 26-point gap between April 30 and May 31 tells you traders expect any possible catalyst to come after the April 30 deadline, not before it.
Liquidity is real: $854,504 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. Order book depth shows it takes $27,666 to move the April 30 market 5 points, which means the book is reasonably thick but still vulnerable to large single orders. The biggest move was a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM, likely reactive trading to the cancellation news.
Trump’s decision to pull his envoys signals that diplomatic momentum has stopped. The ceasefire looks more fragile without active talks. At 3¢, a YES share in the April 30 market pays $1 if a peace deal is reached, a 33.3x return. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of a breakthrough before that date. For odds to recover, talks would need to resume or a new mediator would need to step in.
Key signals to watch: statements from Trump or Vance on Iran, any new diplomatic channel opening, and whether Pakistani intermediaries continue back-channel efforts. Any of these could move the May 31 and June 30 markets sharply.
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