Treasury’s cash plan points to a possible December liquidity window for Bitcoin

Treasury’s new financing calendar gives Bitcoin’s liquidity hopes a possible December window, with projected cash peaks on either side. Its Nov. 4 refunding statement anticipates cash peaks near $1,025 billion in late November and late January, with a lower balance assumed at December’s close.That sequence sharpens the timing of potential reserve relief. If Treasury spends down its account at the Federal Reserve, it can return reserves to banks, all else equal. But the planned December reduction in bill auction sizes partly reflects expected tax receipts, which move cash the other way. That makes December’s net cash movement the first test of the funding case.Two cash peaks frame DecemberIn its refunding statement, Treasury estimates that the Treasury General Account, its operating account at the Fed, could peak at $1,025 billion, plus or minus $50 billion, in both late November 2026 and late January 2027. It assumes an $850 billion balance at the end of December.The Nov. 2 borrowing estimates also assume a $1 trillion cash balance at the end of March 2027.The bill schedule adds a seasonal mechanism. Treasury expects to maintain current benchmark bill auction sizes into late Novemb...