This Analyst Correctly Predicted Bitcoin’s Recovery Will End Badly, But What’s Next?

Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim higher ground above the $73,000 region has taken another turn, and the leading cryptocurrency is now back to trading below $70,000. This latest price action has played out exactly like a warning issued days earlier by a technical analyst who stated that the breakout many traders were waiting for would ultimately fail.

The focus has now changed from a rally to what the failed breakout structure could mean for the next phase of Bitcoin’s price action.

Why The Breakout Above $72,000 Failed

According to technical analyst Ardi, the problem was never the breakout itself but the lack of preparation leading into it. Based on this view, Bitcoin attempted to push through resistance last week without first building the necessary structural foundation that usually supports sustained rallies. 

Just last week, when Bitcoin was pushing above $73,000, Ardi noted that the roughly 25-day consolidation period below $70,000 was simply too short to counteract the heavy downward pressure that had dominated the market for months. As such, he warned that the breakout might actually be negative for investors.

A consolidation period is an accumulation phase, a window during which buyers absorb available supply and build the foundation for the next sustained move. The longer and more deliberate this process, the greater the structural support for any eventual breakout.

Source: Chart from Ardi on X

In the case of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency’s price only spent about 25 days ranging between $63,000 and $69,000 in February. This was small compared to a five-month stretch of corrections that Bitcoin has been tracing out since its October 2025 peak above $126,000. Therefore, it is easy to conclude that Bitcoin’s price structure has not yet developed a base strong enough to support a durable rally.

That’s exactly what happened above $72,000. The Bitcoin price poked above, ran into supply with no structural foundation behind it, and got swallowed back into the range it spent weeks trying to escape.

What Could Happen Next For BTC?

From the analyst’s perspective, the bearish Bitcoin structure has not yet been invalidated. Short-lived moves above resistance are not enough for a true reversal if the market structure is still weak.

Therefore, BTC’s price trend might remain vulnerable until it spends significantly more time consolidating and building a genuine accumulation base. This means the cryptocurrency may need more weeks of sideways movement between $60,000 and $70,000 before a breakout can carry the kind of momentum required to sustain a larger rally above the mid-$70,000s. 

On-chain data shows that demand for Bitcoin is still relatively weak. Any moves above resistance should be treated with caution, as they might become traps for another flush down. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is $69,500, down by 2.8% in the past 24 hours.

BTC trading at $69,522 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com