These 3 Factors Could Shape Bitcoin’s Post-Midterm Performance

Sustained ETF buying and progress on crypto regulation could help determine whether post-election optimism translates into lasting gains. Bitcoin is nearing the US midterm election window, with past performances around that period holding it in good stead, but analysts at XWIN Japan have warned that past gains don’t necessarily mean we will see another rally. Their analysis suggests a narrow test for BTC, especially if ETF buying continues, Treasury yields cool, and regulatory uncertainty clears up after the vote. What the Midterm Record Shows XWIN Japan stated that the S&P 500 had appreciated in all 19 12-month periods following US midterm elections held since 1950, with an average appreciation rate of 15.4%. Moreover, Bitcoin has gone up by 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the 12 months following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, respectively. But there is a catch. BTC fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election, leaving just three historical observations for Bitcoin. XWIN Japan therefore cautioned that “three observations cannot establish a reliable rule.” Reduced political uncertainty may help risk-taking, but the election itself does not establish a cause for higher cry...