The Reflex Map

The finding News is supposed to move markets, but most of it does not, and which markets move is not the story you would guess. We paired more than a hundred thousand news items to the prediction markets that carried them and logged what each market did next. News about crypto, soccer or geopolitics repriced a market five cents or more about one time in ten. News about economy, politics or tech did so about one time in thirty to one in forty-five. Same pipeline, same threshold, so a high-reactivity headline is roughly three to five times likelier to move a market than a low-reactivity one. That between-group gap is the finding, and it is the only comparison here that survives scrutiny. The order inside a group is not: crypto’s lead is a join artifact that falls to third on the wider join, and crypto, geopolitics, politics and tech each take four or more rank positions across 28 specifications. Read the two tiers, not the six bars. How often a market moves is not how often the news moved it. The Reflex Map · Vera Research The method The study spans 567,033 news-to-market reaction measurements across 3,707 markets and 123,424 news items, from April 29 to July 13, 2026. A reaction is ...