The Propagation Ladder

The finding When a World Cup match turns, the match market is not the only price that moves. We took 95 goal-sized repricing episodes across 608 linked World Cup markets and asked, for each one, which other markets moved with it. When a match market repriced 10 cents or more, the group-winner market moved with it 80.0% of the time. In the same window 24 hours earlier, with no shock, 8.4%. The co-move rate fades with distance from the match. Progression markets, on reaching or being eliminated in a round, moved 49.5% of the time against 13.7% a day earlier; top-scorer markets 15.8% against 4.2%; the tournament-winner market 9.8% against 0.6%. Magnitude fades on the same ladder: a median 63.3 cents on other lines in the same match, down to two tenths of a cent on the title. One goal reprices a whole tree of markets. It just gets quieter further out. One shock, a whole tree of markets, and almost nothing reaches the top. The Propagation Ladder · Vera Research The control is the argument Every rate above is paired with the identical measurement shifted back exactly 24 hours, so what it isolates is the shock, not the ordinary churn of an active market. Prediction markets move on their o...