The CLARITY Act may not pass in 2026, and here is what that means for crypto markets

Polymarket odds have collapsed from 82% to 16%. The Senate returns on September 14 with 14 working days, eight missing Democratic votes, and an ethics fight over a president who made $1.4 billion from crypto. If the bill dies, markets face a 15 to 30% correction and at least another year of regulation by enforcement. Summary Polymarket traders now give the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act a 16% chance of becoming law in 2026, down from an 82% peak in February, after the Senate adjourned for its August recess without scheduling a floor vote. The bill needs 60 votes to clear the filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats but are expected to lose Senators Hawley and Paul, meaning at least eight Democrats must cross over. Only two did so in committee. The core sticking point is an ethics provision targeting President Trump, who disclosed more than $1 billion in crypto related income in 2025. Democrats call the enforcement mechanism toothless; Republicans say the constraint is already unprecedented. Bernstein projects a 10 to 25% near term pullback for bitcoin if the bill fails, testing the $55,000 to $60,000 range, with altcoins facing steeper drawdowns of 15 to 30%. Failure would leave the...