2 hours ago
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Tehran sent a negotiating team to Islamabad today. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 20.5%, down from 16% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 22 peace deal market dropped 4 points with just two days left. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of a breakthrough this week. The June 30 peace deal market moved in the opposite direction, rising to 70%. The gap between these two contracts tells a straightforward story: traders don’t expect a deal this week but think one is likely by summer.
Why it matters
The diplomatic meeting location market also moved. The probability of no qualifying US-Iran meeting by June 30 dropped to 3%, consistent with Islamabad hosting today’s talks. That market has only $3,545 in actual USDC traded, so small trades can cause outsized swings, but today’s move lines up with the direction across related contracts.
What to watch
The June 30 peace deal market at 70¢ YES is the most liquid way to express a view that talks will produce a deal before summer ends. The contrarian trade is buying earlier resolution dates, betting on unexpected acceleration. Statements from Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif or the Iranian Foreign Minister could move these markets quickly.
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