TD Securities’ Molly Brooks warns of asymmetric risks from Fed comments at Jackson Hole

Molly Brooks, US rates strategist at TD Securities, is flagging what she calls an “asymmetric risk” heading into next week’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The core idea: dovish surprises from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh could trigger larger market moves than hawkish ones, creating an uneven risk landscape for anyone holding duration-sensitive positions. The warning comes as long-end Treasury yields have been climbing back up, a trend Brooks has been tracking closely in recent appearances. With Warsh set to deliver his capstone speech on August 29, his first major public address since taking over as Fed Chair on May 22, traders are bracing for a week that could reset the rate outlook entirely. Why the long end keeps selling off Brooks has pointed to a combination of factors driving the backup in long-dated Treasury yields. Issuance patterns in the 20-year and 30-year maturities have weighed on prices, while investor positioning has left the market vulnerable to further selling pressure at the back end of the curve. TD Securities analysts expect a prolonged period of higher policy rates as the curve adjusts. What makes Jackson Hole different this time Warsh, who took ...