TD Cowen initiates Circle Internet Group at buy with $82 price target, betting on USDC’s infrastructure play

Wall Street analysts offered sharply contrasting views on Circle Internet Group on Monday, highlighting a growing debate over whether the stablecoin issuer can expand beyond the reserve income generated by USDC. Morgan Stanley downgraded Circle from Equal Weight to Underweight and cut its price target to $38 from $106. TD Cowen, meanwhile, initiated coverage with a Buy rating and an $82 target. Morgan Stanley said slowing USDC growth, intensifying competition and delays in developing transaction based revenue could leave Circle’s earnings below market expectations. The firm reduced its forecasts for USDC circulation by about 33% for 2027 and 44% for 2028. Those revisions pushed its 2028 earnings estimate roughly 20% below Wall Street consensus. Morgan Stanley argued that stablecoin activity remains heavily concentrated in crypto trading and transfers rather than everyday payments. That concentration could make USDC balances less durable and leave Circle reliant on interest earned from the assets backing the token. The brokerage also warned that tokenized money market funds, tokenized bank deposits and consortium backed stablecoin projects such as OpenUSD could weaken Circle’s reser...