TD Cowen initiates Circle Internet Group at Buy with $82 price target

Wall Street is starting to warm up to the stablecoin infrastructure trade. TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin initiated coverage of Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) on August 3 with a Buy rating and an $82 price target, implying roughly 31% upside from where the stock was trading at the time, around $62.61. From reserve income to revenue machine Circle built its early business on a simple model: issue USDC, hold the reserves in short-term Treasuries, collect the interest. Bergin’s note argues Circle is actively moving past that dependency. The company’s last twelve months of revenue hit $2.86 billion, up 51% year over year. That growth is coming not just from USDC float income but from a growing slate of fee-based products including CPN, CCTP, USYC, StableFix, and developer services. TD Cowen projects USDC circulation will grow at a 31% compound annual growth rate through 2030. Circle’s IPO story is already complicated Circle went public on June 5, 2025, pricing 34 million shares at $31 and landing a fully diluted valuation of roughly $8 billion at the open. Shares opened above $69, more than double the IPO price, before eventually hitting highs above $290. The stock has since traded ...