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T. Rowe Price, one of the world’s largest asset managers, is betting that the Chinese yuan will weaken, arguing the currency looks expensive when measured against its Asian neighbors.
The call puts the firm on the other side of a trade that has been gaining momentum in recent months. Options pricing has reflected the most bullish expectations for yuan appreciation since 2011, driven partly by the currency’s growing global usage.
The valuation argument
This isn’t a firm that makes currency calls lightly. T. Rowe Price manages roughly $1.6 trillion in assets and has deep roots in the China market. The firm launched its China Evolution Equity Fund back in December 2019 and opened a dedicated research office in Shanghai in 2021. As of the end of 2020, the firm had $4.8 billion invested in Mainland China-listed securities through QFII and Stock Connect channels.
A contrarian position in a bullish crowd
Options pricing as of June 2026 reflects the most optimistic expectations for yuan appreciation in roughly 15 years, fueled by the currency’s expanding role in international trade settlement and reserve diversification.
The firm’s November 2025 outlook projected a stable to moderately improving macroeconomic landscape for 2026, which suggests they aren’t bearish on China broadly.
What this means for investors
T. Rowe Price’s broader strategic emphasis appears tilted toward non-US equities and identifying valuation spreads across global markets. Their 2026 midyear outlook has focused heavily on equity opportunities rather than currency forecasting, which makes this yuan call somewhat unusual for the firm.
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