Suspicious prediction market activity seen before election poll release: NYT

Latest NewsPublishedNov 7, 2026Bets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls were released to the public, according to a report.Suspicious prediction market bets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls were released to the public, according to a report.Vanderbilt University researchers said a Polymarket user bet almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. An hour later, a Times/Siena poll was released showing Ricketts in the lead.A Friday New York Times report said while it was not clear if the user had access to inside information, they won more than $77,000.The user also placed similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi, the report said.“There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. It “requires further investigation.”Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined comment.Cointelegraph reported in April that a US Army soldier had been charged after making more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market all...