Strait of Hormuz traffic sees mild recovery, geopolitical risks persist

Strait of Hormuz traffic has only mildly recovered in April, with the market for normalization by April 30 now at 64.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.

Market reaction

The April 30 market dropped 10 points in the past 24 hours, with traders skeptical about a quick return to normal. The May 31 market sits at 87% YES, meaning traders see a much higher chance of resolution over the longer timeframe.

Combined volume across the Strait of Hormuz markets is $32,234 USDC traded in the last 24 hours. The April 30 sub-market is thin: it takes only $354 to move the price 5 points. The largest single movement was a 4-point drop, which shows how vulnerable the market is to individual trades.

Why it matters

The partial traffic recovery matters less than the geopolitical risk still hanging over the strait. The 32-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 markets (50% vs. 82%) prices in the possibility that a resolution happens, just not within two weeks.

What to watch

A YES at 64.5¢ pays $1 if resolved by April 30, a 2x return. That bet requires believing in a diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation within the next 14 days. Watch for Trump’s statements and any announcements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry, as both will directly affect these odds.

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