SpaceX IPO could spur hardware startups, says Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire

SpaceX just pulled off a $75 billion IPO, and the ripple effects might extend far beyond aerospace. Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, thinks this is the moment that kicks hardware startups into a higher gear, drawing talent away from traditional software and big research labs into sectors like biology, longevity, energy, and climate.

The IPO, which priced around $135 per share on June 11-12, pushed SpaceX’s post-IPO valuation north of $2 trillion.

The SpaceX alumni pipeline is already real

Maguire says that 30-50% of the hardware startups he encounters already have SpaceX alumni on their founding teams. Think of it like the PayPal Mafia, but for atoms instead of bits. When PayPal went public in the early 2000s, its alumni went on to found or lead Tesla, LinkedIn, YouTube, Palantir, and Yelp. Maguire is essentially arguing that SpaceX’s IPO is a similar inflection point, except this generation of founders builds physical things: rockets, batteries, biotech devices, and energy infrastructure.

Sequoia’s massive bet keeps paying off

Maguire has personally invested approximately $1.2 billion in SpaceX since 2019 through Sequoia. The firm’s stake reportedly grew from roughly $2 billion to over $20 billion following the IPO, a 10x return that ranks among the most profitable venture bets in recent memory.

Maguire has also backed five Elon Musk companies through Sequoia: SpaceX, xAI, Neuralink, The Boring Company, and X. He’s compared SpaceX’s growth trajectory to Nvidia’s from three years ago, and thinks the company’s run-up is more beginning than end, particularly with plans to establish data centers in space as early as 2028.

Why biology, energy, and climate are the beneficiaries

Maguire’s prediction isn’t just about more rocket companies or satellite ventures. He specifically calls out biology, longevity, energy, and climate as sectors that will absorb departing talent from big labs and SpaceX alumni alike.

What this means for investors

If Maguire is right that 30-50% of hardware startups he sees already have SpaceX founders, that percentage is only going up now that the IPO has created a new class of wealthy, experienced engineers. The risk, as always with hardware, is execution. Biology startups take years to navigate regulatory approval. Energy companies need massive capital expenditures before generating revenue. Climate tech often depends on policy environments that can shift with elections.

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