SpaceX faces mechanical buying pressure as stock loses momentum after IPO

SpaceX has shed more than a quarter of its value in just days. The stock, trading under ticker SPCX, hit $225.64 on June 16 before retreating to roughly $155, leaving early buyers nursing losses and short sellers eyeing what looks like an opportunity.

The IPO hangover

SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share. The stock promptly opened at $150 and ripped higher, peaking four days later at $225.64.

At that high-water mark, SpaceX carried a market capitalization of approximately $2.66 trillion. That valued the company at roughly 142 times its expected 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. The market has since cooled, with the current cap sitting around $2.07 trillion.

The current price of $155 still represents a roughly 15% premium over the IPO price of $135. Investors who bought at the offering are sitting on gains. Those who chased the stock toward $225 are underwater.

Why shorts face an uphill battle

Short interest currently sits at approximately 40 million shares, representing about 5-7% of the total public float of roughly 625 million shares.

Borrowing costs for shorting SPCX remain below 1% annualized. The float itself is constrained by insider ownership and phased lock-up periods that limit how many shares are actually circulating in the open market.

Passive investment flows generated by index funds and ETFs that must purchase shares based on rules rather than conviction are expected to funnel billions of dollars into SPCX. This creates a dynamic where price-insensitive buyers are scooping up shares regardless of what the stock is doing on any given day.

Matthew Unterman of S3 Partners has characterized the current short activity as part of typical price discovery rather than a precursor to a short squeeze.

The Musk factor and what it means for investors

Tesla short sellers famously lost billions over the years as the stock defied gravity and conventional valuation metrics. That institutional memory creates a kind of psychological floor under Musk-affiliated stocks, with many traders who might otherwise short SPCX choosing to sit on the sidelines.

The key variable to watch is the timing and structure of lock-up expirations. As insiders gain the ability to sell shares over the coming months, the float will expand, creating more potential selling pressure if early employees and investors decide to cash out.

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