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SpaceX’s acquisition of Cursor, preempting Microsoft’s interest, has drawn regulatory scrutiny. The odds for SpaceX’s IPO by June 30, 2026, sit at 70.5% YES, up from 68% a week ago.
The June IPO market shows traders weighing the acquisition’s regulatory fallout against SpaceX’s IPO momentum. The price rose 2 points in a spike at 1:50 PM, suggesting some buyers still expect a timely listing. The September 30 market sits at 92.5% YES, which implies traders think any delays would push the IPO later in the year rather than kill it.
The term structure shows a large gap between the April 30 and June 30 dates. Traders expect something to break in that window, likely tied to regulatory outcomes. The December 31 market holds steady at 91.5% YES, though major regulatory obstacles could shift these numbers.
Trading volume on the June 30 contract is at $1,155 in daily USDC traded. It takes $4,330 to move the price 5 points, which shows moderate liquidity but leaves the contract vulnerable to large orders. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike, likely a reaction to the regulatory news.
For traders, the question is whether regulatory delays are a real threat or background noise. Buying YES at 70.5¢ pays $1 if SpaceX IPOs by June 30, a 1.42x return. That bet depends on regulatory issues clearing in time for a Q2 listing.
Watch for SEC announcements or statements from Elon Musk on the IPO timeline. Confirmation of regulatory approval or roadshow details would move these contracts.
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