Sberbank projects Russia’s regulated crypto trading volume to hit $46B in first year

Russia is about to flip the switch on legal crypto trading, and its biggest bank thinks the opening act will be worth roughly $46 billion. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said he expects regulated exchanges to handle 3.5 to 4 trillion rubles in their first 12 months of operation, a figure that sounds massive until you realize it only represents about a fifth of Russia’s estimated total annual crypto volume. The remaining 80%, or roughly 14 trillion rubles, will presumably keep flowing through the peer-to-peer channels and offshore platforms that Russian traders have relied on for years. What the new framework actually looks like The regulations go live on September 1, 2026. From that date, Russians can legally buy and trade crypto, but only through licensed brokers, exchanges, asset managers, and depositories. The asset menu is deliberately narrow at launch. Only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT will be available on regulated platforms initially. Non-qualified investors face an annual purchase cap of 300,000 rubles, which works out to roughly $3,800. Qualified investors get a significantly higher ceiling of 3 million rubles. One thing the law explicitly does not do: allow people ...