Saudi Aramco warns of 100M barrels weekly loss if Strait of Hormuz stays closed

## Market Snapshot WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026 are currently priced at 47.5% YES for hitting $110, up from 42% 24 hours ago. The Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit market is currently at 49.0% YES for 20 ships transiting by May 31, down from 69% a day earlier.

## Key Takeaways – Pricing suggests the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is consistent with no ship transit by May 31. – Saudi Aramco’s warning appears to support the likelihood of increased WTI crude oil prices, given the supply constraints. – Market activity suggests uncertainty persists over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

## Article Body Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has issued a stark warning about the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, saying the market could lose around 100 million barrels of oil every week if the strait remains closed. This comes amid a volatile geopolitical situation involving the United States, Iran, and their allies, which has halted significant oil flows. The closure has stranded numerous vessels and disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supply. Nasser’s prediction aligns with existing data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, highlighting the severe impact on global oil markets.

## Market Interpretation Markets appear to interpret the CEO’s statement as supportive of YES outcomes for increased WTI prices, with a moderate impact. The pricing of WTI crude oil suggests participants view the continued disruption as a factor likely to drive prices higher. Conversely, the current straits transit market pricing reflects a high-impact indication of the continued blockade, consistent with a scenario where the closure persists.

## What to Watch Watch for updates from key geopolitical actors, including U.S. and Iranian officials, which could influence the market outlook. Developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations or military actions could shift market expectations about oil supply disruptions. Additionally, any changes in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, such as diplomatic breakthroughs or military interventions, could significantly impact market pricing.

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Strait of hormuz ship transit bearish

49% FLAT