Saudi Arabia may sell US Treasuries if US strikes Iran

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are once again in the spotlight as reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may consider a significant financial maneuver if the U.S. initiates military action against Iran’s energy infrastructure. According to geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to passively absorb the repercussions of potential Iranian retaliation, which could include targeting the Aramco oil conglomerate. In response, Riyadh has reportedly threatened to fund necessary repairs by liquidating substantial holdings of U.S. Treasuries. This move is perceived as an escalation that could strain the financial and diplomatic ties between Riyadh and Washington. The potential for increased U.S.-Iran tensions and Saudi Arabia’s financial strategy appear to be influencing prediction markets related to a possible U.S.-Iran deal in 2026. The likelihood of an agreement involving Iran Reconstruction Funding is currently priced at 35.5% YES, while sub-markets reflecting various aspects of such a deal show fluctuating probabilities. Recent developments, including the threat of Saudi financial action, suggest a decrease in the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement betw...