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S&P 500 companies cut 400,000 jobs in 2025, the first net reduction since 2016, with Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft leading the cuts. The shift toward AI spending has lifted NVIDIA’s outlook, and prediction markets price NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on April 30 at 99.8% YES.
Market reaction
As Amazon, Microsoft, and other large firms redirect headcount toward AI, traders are betting on NVIDIA’s continued dominance in AI chips. The contract for largest company by June 30 sits at 93.0% YES. The April 30 contract at 99.8% is priced as a near-lock, consistent with NVIDIA already holding the top market cap spot and corporate AI budgets growing.
Why it matters
Volume in the April 30 market is $186,981 in USDC traded. It takes $183,166 to move the price 5 points, which points to real institutional-level liquidity rather than thin speculative interest. The market is barely moving off its current level because traders see little realistic path to NVIDIA losing the top spot before month-end.
What to watch
At 93¢, a YES share on NVIDIA being the largest company by June 30 pays $1, a 7.5% return over roughly two months. The wider gap from the April contract reflects more time for disruption. NVIDIA’s earnings calls and product announcements are the main catalysts that could move these odds. Any major tech firm scaling back AI capex, or a competitor closing the gap in AI accelerators, would also matter.
Watch for NVIDIA’s next earnings report and any changes to AI capital expenditure guidance from Amazon, Microsoft, or Meta. Those are the most direct inputs to these contracts.
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