Richmond Fed manufacturing index ticks up to 5 in July, missing forecasts by wide margin

The Richmond Federal Reserve’s composite manufacturing index for July 2026 came in at 5, up one point from June’s reading of 4. That sounds like progress until you learn that analysts were expecting 10, at which point the word “progress” starts to feel generous. Released on July 28, the survey covers manufacturing activity across Washington D.C., Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia, drawing on responses from roughly 190 manufacturing plants. What the numbers actually say The composite index is built from three components: new orders, which carries the heaviest weight at 40%, shipments at 33%, and employment at 27%. Shipments showed the most meaningful move, rising to 8 from 4 in June. Employment crossed back into positive territory, climbing to 2 from -1. In English: factories in the Fifth District are shipping slightly more product and hiring, just barely, rather than cutting. The composite reading of 5 still sits above the index’s long-run historical average of 1.85 points since 1993, which is worth noting. The index has swung between a record high of 27 in March 2004 and a record low of -54 in April 2020, the latter being the kind of num...