Putin plans draft surge, targets NATO in Ukraine war escalation: report

Reports from the Jerusalem Post indicate that Russia is preparing to escalate its involvement in the Ukraine conflict through a draft surge, as well as attacks targeting NATO and European territories. This move suggests an intensification of both military operations within Ukraine and hybrid operations across Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy appears to involve replenishing manpower to sustain a prolonged campaign, while also exerting coercive pressure on NATO and its member states. In prediction markets, this development has influenced the perceived likelihood of Russian military actions in specific Ukrainian cities. The probability of Russia entering Sloviansk by the end of 2026 is currently priced at 12.5% YES. Similarly, the potential for Russian entry into other cities such as Druzkhivka and Dopropillia has been affected, with these markets reflecting increased odds in recent days. The scenario of Russia’s escalation is consistent with higher pricing for Russian military advances in these locations. The market reflects heightened anticipation of significant movements by Russian forces, which could impact geopolitical stability in the region. Market participan...