Putin intensifies bombing campaign to pressure Ukraine on territorial concessions

Russian President Vladimir Putin has intensified the bombing campaign against Ukraine, aiming to exploit what he perceives as the country’s weakened air defenses. This escalation appears intended to pressure Kyiv into conceding on territorial demands, potentially by winter. The ongoing conflict, which began in February 2022, sees Russia occupying approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, no ceasefire has been reached, with territorial concessions remaining a significant hurdle. The intensified aerial assault suggests an escalation in Russia’s strategy, relying heavily on missile and drone strikes. Key Takeaways The reported intensification of Russia’s bombing campaign appears consistent with a strategy to pressure Ukraine into territorial concessions. Market pricing suggests increased likelihood of Russian military advances, potentially affecting the odds of cities like Sloviansk. The ongoing air campaign, rather than ground breakthroughs, may indicate Russia’s strategic focus on degrading Ukrainian air defenses. What to Watch Observers will closely monitor any changes in Ukrainian air defense capabilities and international responses, which could...