Prediction Market Odds: Military Bets Raise Security Concerns

New research on prediction market odds suggests military bets win far more often than they should. Researchers at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective analyzed more than 400,000 settled Polymarket prediction market odds. They focused on large bets placed on unlikely outcomes. These are wagers of at least $2,500 on outcomes priced below 35 percent implied probability. Across the platform, such bets pay out 14 percent of the time. In markets tied to military and defense events, they pay out 52 percent of the time. David Szakonyi, Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, and Michael Hornsby published the analysis on September 17, 2026. The findings come months after prosecutors charged US serviceman Gannon Ken Van Dyke. He allegedly used classified information about the January 2026 operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors say he turned a bet into roughly $400,000 in winnings. Earlier DOJ charges against the soldier detail his classified Polymarket bets. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty, and his trial is expected later this year. El FBI le puso los ganchos a un soldado Delta Force (Sargento Maestro – Gannon Ken Van Dyke), que participó y planificó la captura de Maduro el 3...