Polymarket puts December Fed hike odds at 85% after hot CPI

Polymarket traders priced an 85% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December on Nov. 10, while bets on a larger move pushed the combined probability of tighter policy to about 97.7% after October’s hotter-than-expected inflation report. Summary Polymarket puts a quarter-point December hike at 85%, with larger-hike odds at 12.7%. October consumer prices rose 0.4%, while inflation excluding food and energy came in at 0.3%. Bitcoin traded near $74,541 after touching a 24-hour low of roughly $73,587. November’s CPI report is scheduled for Dec. 10, one day after the Fed’s decision. According to Polymarket’s market, traders gave unchanged rates a 2.9% chance, with each rate-cut outcome below 1%. The market had generated roughly $22.6 million in trading volume when checked. Polymarket prices in both quarter-point and larger hikes The latest 85% reading for a 25-basis-point hike sits below the 87% cited in the earlier report. However, the separate contract for a move of at least 50 basis points stood at 12.7%, bringing the two displayed hike probabilities to approximately 97.7%. A quarter-point hike and a half-point hike are separate outcomes in the market. The 85% figu...