Peter Schiff warns $100 oil could unleash a July inflation shock

Economist Peter Schiff has warned that Brent crude’s surge above $100 could reverse June’s 0.4% monthly CPI decline and produce a sharp US inflation rebound in July. Summary Peter Schiff warns oil’s rebound above $100 could drive July inflation sharply higher. Brent surged as Houthi attacks and restricted shipping intensified global supply concerns. Markets price a 37.6% chance of a Fed rate hike in July. Peter Schiff linked the risk to oil’s rapid recovery after energy costs helped pull headline inflation below forecasts in June. In a post on X, Schiff noted that crude had already climbed about 30% in July and returned above $90 per barrel when he issued the warning. “Investors celebrated the June CPI, as a 30% fall in the price of oil led to a larger-than-expected decline. But so far in July, the price of oil is already up 30%, back above $90 per barrel.” At the time, Schiff estimated that a move to $100 before the end of July would represent a 43% increase from oil’s recent low. Brent crossed that level hours later as attacks on Saudi tankers created another threat to energy shipments from the Middle East. “If the price hits $100 by month-end, that will be a 43% rise. July CPI c...