OpenAI’s market cap odds drop from 80% to just above 50% amid IPO delay

Traders on Polymarket once gave OpenAI an 80% chance of reaching a market cap above $1.5 trillion. Those odds have since dropped to 58%, which is barely better than a coin flip. The slide follows OpenAI’s decision to push its IPO timeline from a possible late-2026 debut into 2027. Weaker sentiment around AI profitability has added to the drag. What changed for OpenAI OpenAI announced the shift in its IPO timeline in September 2026. CEO Sam Altman pointed to safety as a key reason for delaying the decision. He framed the delay around keeping AI alignment ahead of rapid advances in the technology. Market conditions appear to have played a role too. Concerns about volatility followed SpaceX’s IPO in June 2026, and that backdrop has not made anyone eager to rush a mega-listing. Then there is the price tag. Altman has described any valuation under $1 trillion as a nonstarter for the IPO. He has said the company will not go public until a proper valuation is assured. A drop from 80% to 58% does not mean traders think OpenAI is in trouble. It means they are much less sure the eventual listing will clear the $1.5 trillion bar. The numbers behind the bet OpenAI’s private valuation has climb...