OpenAI revenue claim puts a $20 billion question mark on AI’s growth story

A post circulating on X claims that OpenAI’s annualized revenues are $20 billion less than previously reported. It also lands at an awkward moment, with OpenAI reportedly pursuing a fundraising round that could value it at over $800 billion. The numbers on the record In a blog post from mid-January 2026, CFO Sarah Friar said the company’s annualized recurring revenue topped $20 billion by the end of 2025. That compared with $6 billion in 2024 and $2 billion in 2023. Friar tied that growth to a huge buildout of computing power. OpenAI’s capacity rose to 1.9 gigawatts in 2025, up from 0.6 gigawatts the year before, nearly a threefold jump. The Information reported that OpenAI’s run rate had passed $25 billion by around February or March 2026. Bloomberg then reported that OpenAI’s ARR was above $40 billion by August 2026. The most aggressive estimate in circulation, not tied to a named outlet, put the figure near $70 billion by late September 2026. That same estimate pointed to more than 70% growth in the third quarter. It also cited a doubling of enterprise sales since July and the rollout of advertising inside ChatGPT as a new income stream. Why run-rate math is slippery The basic i...