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Oil prices jumped $3 per barrel with Brent crude hitting $101 after US-Iran negotiations failed. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been a major factor in the price move. The April 30 market reflects minimal expectation that prices will exceed $120 within the next 6 days, with odds in gradual decline. Meanwhile, traders are watching the June 2023 market for crude oil hitting $90 by June as tensions continue.
The all-time high market has seen modest trading: $2,513 in actual USDC over the last 24 hours. A $695 investment could move the market by 5 points, which signals thin liquidity. The largest move was a 1-point spike earlier today, and traders appear cautious given the geopolitical uncertainty.
The Strait’s closure directly constrains global oil supply, which is why the negotiation failure matters. This raises the probability of sustained high oil prices, but the market shows little confidence in reaching an all-time high by April 30. At 1.1% YES, a share pays $1 if prices exceed $120, a long shot that would require a dramatic escalation within 6 days.
Watch for OPEC+ statements and any renewed US-Iran diplomatic contact. Movement toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz or strategic petroleum releases could shift market odds.
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