NY Fed reports little change in inflation expectations for July as consumers remain cautiously optimistic

American consumers are feeling marginally less panicky about near-term price increases, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. The July 2026 edition, released this week, showed the median one-year inflation forecast slipping 0.1 percentage points to 3.6%. After June’s sharp uptick had raised some eyebrows, the new reading amounts to a collective shrug from roughly 1,300 surveyed household heads. The longer-term picture barely budged at all. Three-year inflation expectations held at 3.3%, while the five-year outlook stayed anchored at 3.0%. A reversal of June’s spike Context matters here. The June survey had shown one-year expectations climbing 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%, with three-year expectations also rising 0.2 percentage points to reach 3.3%. Household financial perceptions actually improved in both the current assessment and year-ahead expectations. Gas prices and unemployment cloud the picture Not everything in the July survey reads as benign. Gas-price growth expectations jumped 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%. The mean probability that consumers assigned to a higher US unemployment rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 42....