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Jerome Powell’s last FOMC press conference, earnings from Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, GDP data, and Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholder meeting without Warren Buffett all land this week. NVIDIA’s odds of becoming the largest company by market cap by June have climbed to 92.5% YES on Polymarket.
The market for NVIDIA’s ascent is at 92.5% YES, up from 90% last week. Earnings reports from all five mega-cap tech companies this week add volatility: weak performances from any of them could widen NVIDIA’s lead. The market’s depth shows it would take $42,558 to shift odds by 5 points, which indicates strong trader conviction behind the current price.
Powell’s final FOMC appearance is the other major catalyst for the Fed’s Cut-Pause-Pause sequence. That market hasn’t seen recent trades, but any dovish hints from Powell, particularly signals about potential rate cuts, could change that quickly.
Powell’s exit and five simultaneous mega-cap earnings reports create an unusual concentration of market-moving events in a single week. For NVIDIA’s market cap bet, buying YES at 92¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 1.08x return. Traders long NVIDIA need to watch tech earnings closely, since any disappointment could reshuffle the market cap ranking.
Watch Powell’s press conference for monetary policy signals and Apple and Amazon earnings in particular for clues on whether NVIDIA holds its position at the top.
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