Nvidia, Alphabet, AMD secure 85% of 2027 HBM supply

The AI arms race has a new chokepoint, and it’s not the chips themselves. It’s the memory stacked on top of them. Nvidia, Alphabet, and AMD are projected to consume roughly 85% of global high-bandwidth memory supply by 2027, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. That leaves every other company building AI hardware, from startups to established hyperscalers, fighting over what amounts to table scraps in one of the most consequential supply chains in tech. The numbers behind the squeeze Morgan Stanley’s breakdown puts Nvidia at 37.3% of global HBM demand by 2027. Alphabet, fueled by its custom TPU chip program, comes in at 36%. AMD rounds out the trio at 12.1%. HBM is projected to shift from roughly 20% to over 50% of the total bill-of-materials cost in upcoming GPU designs. Memory used to be a line item. Now it’s the line item. The three primary HBM manufacturers, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, have reportedly already filled their 2027 production capacity. Significant new manufacturing capacity isn’t expected to come online until late 2027 or potentially 2028. Nvidia alone has disclosed procurement commitments that have ballooned to $279 billion, predominantly targeting memory-rela...